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Markets This Week: Iran War and Fed Minutes
StockCram Editorial11 min readThe Iran conflict hits oil flows, Fed minutes arrive Wednesday, and earnings season kicks off—three forces pulling markets in different directions.
Week of Monday, October 5, 2026 - Friday, October 9, 2026
Key Themes This Week
- •The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to dominate market attention as President Trump deployed 9,000 additional troops to the Middle East over the weekend, with oil prices remaining elevated near $91 per barrel despite recent declines from highs above $114
- •The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its September meeting on Wednesday, when the committee raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since 2023
- •A light earnings week features PepsiCo on Thursday and Delta Air Lines on Friday, offering early signals on consumer spending and travel demand ahead of the major bank earnings that follow
Market Snapshot
VIX (fear gauge)
15.31
-6.59%
10Y Yield
5.28%%
+11 basis points (from 5.17% on September 25)
WTI Oil
$$91.11
-1.9% (from previous day)
Gold
$Data not available in search results
Not available
US Dollar
Data not available in search results
Not available
Market Context
Current Sentiment
Markets closed the week on a positive note following a weaker-than-expected September jobs report that reduced expectations for additional Fed rate hikes in October. However, the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz continue to inject uncertainty into energy markets and broader sentiment.
Key Levels
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72, up 0.73% on the day and near recent highs. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 27,190.86, up 1.19% and touching a record high led by technology shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 51,176.96, gaining 0.49%.
Historical Note
The VIX closed at 15.31 on Friday, down from 16.39 earlier in the week, suggesting moderating near-term volatility expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.28%, having retreated from a 24-year high above 5.34% earlier in the week but remaining elevated by historical standards.
Week at a Glance
monday
ISM Services PMI at 10:00 AM ET offers the first major economic test of the week, with focus on prices paid and employment sub-indices for inflation and labor market signals
tuesday
Busiest day for earnings with Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston, and RPM reporting; Treasury auctions $39 billion in 10-year notes; weekly oil inventory data takes on heightened importance given Middle East tensions
wednesday
Fed releases minutes from September meeting at 2:00 PM ET when it raised rates for the first time since 2023; Levi Strauss and Applied Digital report earnings after the close
thursday
PepsiCo reports before the open, offering insight into consumer staples demand and pricing power; weekly jobless claims data at 8:30 AM ET
friday
Delta Air Lines reports before the open with focus on travel demand and fuel cost impact; Producer Price Index and University of Michigan consumer sentiment round out the week's economic data
Breaking Developments
U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalation and Strait of Hormuz Disruptionsgeopolitical
Ongoing through October 2-3, 2026
President Trump announced the deployment of 9,000 additional U.S. troops and a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East over the weekend. Iranian forces have continued targeting oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple attacks reported this week. The U.S. has implemented a blockade that has stopped Iranian oil exports, while Iran's inflation has reached nearly 90%.
Market Relevance
Energy markets have historically reacted sharply to Middle East conflicts that threaten oil supply routes. The Strait of Hormuz typically carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies. WTI crude closed Friday at approximately $91 per barrel, up nearly 50% from year-ago levels. Markets will be monitoring developments closely, as prolonged disruptions could push oil prices significantly higher and complicate the Federal Reserve's inflation fight.
EnergyTransportationAirlinesConsumer Discretionary
Yes—the situation remains fluid with no ceasefire in place. President Trump suggested the conflict could end 'very soon' and 'probably right after the midterms,' but attacks on shipping continue and diplomatic efforts remain deadlocked.
Major Events This Week
ISM Services PMI (September)
Monday, October 5 • 10:00 AM ETWhat to Know
The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the services sector, which represents the majority of the U.S. economy. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. The consensus estimate is 55.1, down slightly from 55.4 in August.
Historical Context
Markets typically focus on the headline number as well as the sub-components for new orders, employment, and prices paid. Elevated prices paid readings have historically signaled ongoing inflation pressure, while weakening employment and new orders can point to slowing demand.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (September 15-16 Meeting)
Wednesday, October 7 • 2:00 PM ETWhat to Know
The Federal Reserve will release detailed minutes from its September meeting, when the committee voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4%. This marked the Fed's first rate increase since 2023, a significant shift from the rate cuts many had expected earlier in the year.
Historical Context
Meeting minutes provide insight into the debate among Fed officials and can reveal how close decisions were. Market participants will be looking for clues about whether September's hike was a one-time adjustment or the start of a new tightening cycle. Given that interest rates influence borrowing costs across the economy, any signals about future policy moves tend to move markets.
PepsiCo Q3 2026 Earnings
Thursday, October 8 • Before Market Open (6:00 AM ET)What to Know
PepsiCo, one of the world's largest food and beverage companies, will report third-quarter results. As a major consumer staples company, its performance offers insight into consumer spending patterns and pricing power in an inflationary environment.
Historical Context
Analysts typically watch for volume trends, pricing actions, and management commentary on consumer behavior. PepsiCo's brands span snacks (Frito-Lay, Doritos, Cheetos) and beverages (Pepsi, Gatorade, Tropicana), providing a broad read on household consumption.
Delta Air Lines Q3 2026 Earnings
Friday, October 9 • Before Market OpenWhat to Know
Delta Air Lines will report third-quarter earnings, offering a window into travel demand and the health of both business and leisure travel. The airline industry has historically been sensitive to both economic conditions and fuel costs.
Historical Context
Market observers typically focus on revenue per available seat mile (RASM), load factors, and forward bookings. Commentary on corporate travel trends and fuel cost management will be particularly relevant given elevated oil prices related to the Middle East conflict.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October Preliminary)
Friday, October 9 • 10:00 AM ETWhat to Know
The University of Michigan releases its preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for October. The survey measures how consumers feel about their personal finances and the broader economy, and includes inflation expectations data.
Historical Context
Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The sentiment index can provide early signals about future spending patterns. The inflation expectations components (1-year and 5-year) are watched by the Federal Reserve as indicators of whether inflation psychology is becoming entrenched.
Earnings Calendar
The week of October 5-9 represents a quiet period before major bank earnings begin the following week. About 25 companies are scheduled to report, with Tuesday the busiest day. The calendar is notable for what it reveals about specific sectors—consumer staples, airlines, and apparel—rather than broad market trends.
Constellation BrandsSTZ
Tuesday, October 6 • After CloseConstellation Brands, known for beer brands like Corona and Modelo as well as wine and spirits, is a significant player in the alcoholic beverage industry. As a publicly traded company, its results offer insight into consumer demand for premium beverages.
Beer segment performance, particularly imported Mexican brandsPricing power and volume trends in a potentially weakening consumer environmentInventory levels and distribution channel health
Lamb WestonLW
Tuesday, October 6 • Before OpenLamb Weston is a major producer of frozen potato products, primarily serving restaurants and foodservice operators. Its results can signal trends in restaurant traffic and food-away-from-home spending.
Restaurant industry demand trendsPotato supply and commodity cost pressuresInternational sales performance
Levi StraussLEVI
Wednesday, October 7 • After CloseThe iconic denim and apparel maker offers a read on consumer discretionary spending, particularly in the mid-market segment. Apparel companies have historically been early indicators of shifts in consumer behavior.
Direct-to-consumer versus wholesale channel performanceInventory management and promotional activityInternational market trends, particularly in Europe and Asia
PepsiCoPEP
Thursday, October 8 • Before Open (6:00 AM ET)PepsiCo is a Dow component and one of the world's largest food and beverage companies. With operations spanning snacks and beverages globally, it provides a comprehensive view of consumer staples demand. The company has been navigating elevated input costs and changing consumer preferences.
Organic volume growth versus pricing-driven revenue growthNorth America versus international performanceCommentary on consumer trade-down behavior or brand loyaltyFull-year guidance updates
Delta Air LinesDAL
Friday, October 9 • Before OpenAs one of the major U.S. carriers, Delta's results offer insight into both business and leisure travel demand. Airlines are particularly exposed to fuel costs, which have been elevated due to Middle East tensions, and to overall economic health.
Domestic versus international revenue trendsPremium cabin and corporate travel demandFuel cost impact and hedging strategiesForward booking trends and holiday travel outlookCommentary on oil price volatility related to geopolitical events
Economic Calendar
Monday - October 5
9:45 AM ET
S&P Global Services PMI (September, Final)Prior: 51.4 (preliminary)
Final reading on services sector activity from S&P Global, typically has less market impact than the ISM survey
10:00 AM ET
ISM Services PMI (September)Prior: 55.4 • Expected: 55.1
Key indicator of services sector health; sub-indices for prices paid and employment are closely watched for inflation and labor market signals
Tuesday - October 6
10:30 AM ET
Weekly DOE Crude Oil InventoriesPrior: Data from previous week
Inventory data takes on heightened importance given ongoing Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions
1:00 PM ET
U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note AuctionPrior: $39 billion offering size
Demand at Treasury auctions is monitored for signals about investor appetite for U.S. government debt, particularly with yields near 24-year highs
3:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit (August)Prior: Previous month data
Measures changes in outstanding consumer credit; growth can signal consumer confidence or reliance on borrowing
Wednesday - October 7
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Meeting Minutes (September 15-16)Prior: Committee voted 12-0 to raise rates 25 bps to 3.75%-4%
Detailed account of the Fed's deliberations at its September meeting, when it raised rates for the first time since 2023; markets will parse language for clues about future policy direction
Thursday - October 8
8:30 AM ET
Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending October 3)Prior: 197,000 • Expected: 197,000
Weekly gauge of layoffs; consistently low claims have historically indicated a healthy labor market, while rising claims can signal economic weakness
Friday - October 9
8:30 AM ET
Producer Price Index (September)Prior: 5.4% year-over-year • Expected: 5.3% year-over-year
Measures wholesale inflation; changes in producer prices can eventually flow through to consumer prices
10:00 AM ET
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October, Preliminary)Prior: 51.7 (September final) • Expected: 54.1
Survey of consumer attitudes about the economy and personal finances; includes 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations that the Fed monitors closely
Fed Watch
Current Rate
3.75% - 4.00% (raised 25 basis points at September 15-16 meeting)
Next Meeting
October 27-28, 2026 (decision announced October 28 at 2:00 PM ET)
Following Friday's weaker-than-expected September jobs report, fed funds futures markets are pricing in less than a 25% probability of another rate hike at the October meeting. The September rate increase marked a significant policy shift, as the Fed had been on hold since 2023 and many analysts had expected cuts earlier in the year.
Upcoming Fed Speakers
No scheduled Fed speeches during the week of October 5-9• N/A- The blackout period ahead of the October FOMC meeting typically restricts public comments from Fed officials
Global Events
EU-China Trade NegotiationsEurope/China
Week of October 5
Trade discussions between major economic blocs can influence global growth expectations and supply chain dynamics, with potential implications for multinational companies
Canada-India Fifth-Round Trade NegotiationsCanada/India
Week of October 5
Bilateral trade agreements can affect commodity flows and trade patterns, particularly in agriculture and energy sectors
Canadian Employment Report (September)Canada
Friday, October 9, 8:30 AM ET
Canada's labor market data can provide context for North American economic trends and influence the Canadian dollar, which affects cross-border trade and commodity pricing
China Consumer Price Index (September)China
Friday, October 9 (exact time varies)
China's inflation data offers insight into the world's second-largest economy and can influence global commodity demand expectations and Asian equity markets
Technical Levels
S&P 500
Current
7,722.72
Support
7,650 area (prior week lows), 7,500 (round number)
Resistance
7,755 (Friday's intraday high), 7,816 (52-week high)
Nasdaq
Current
27,190.86
Support
26,870 (prior consolidation area), 26,500 (round number)
Resistance
27,245 (all-time closing high from September 22), 27,289 (all-time intraday high)
Technical analysis is one of many approaches used by market participants; the S&P 500 is trading above both its 50-day moving average (approximately 7,658) and 200-day moving average (approximately 7,226)
Sources
- • Bloomberg - Trump Expands US Military Forces as Iran Faces Economic Strain (2026-10-03)
- • Fox News - Trump suggests US-Iran war to end 'very soon' (2026-10-03)
- • CBS News - Live Updates: Trump administration Iran war developments (2026-10-02)
- • Trading Economics - United States Stock Market Index (2026-10-02)
- • Federal Reserve Board - H.15 Selected Interest Rates (2026-10-02)
- • Yahoo Finance - Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rally (2026-10-02)
- • Investing Live - Week ahead: ISM services, Fed minutes economic calendar (2026-10-01)
- • Scowcroft Group - Geopolitical Week Ahead: October 5-11 (2026-10-01)
- • 24/7 Wall St. - 25 Companies Report This Week Before Big Banks (2026-10-01)
- • Earnings Whispers - Most Anticipated Earnings Week of October 5 (2026-10-01)
- • Fed Rate Calc - FOMC Meeting Schedule October 2026 (2026-09-30)
Disclaimer: This week ahead preview is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scheduled events may be subject to change. Market reactions to events are unpredictable and past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.