Market Analysis
Why Did Stocks Fall Nov 11? Hot CPI Report
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Market Analysis
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Stocks This Week: CPI After Nasdaq's AI Rout
StockCram Editorial11 min readThe Nasdaq just had its worst day since 2020, oil is near $90, and a hot jobs report keeps rate-hike talk alive. How will October's CPI fit in?
Week of Monday, November 9, 2026 - Friday, November 13, 2026
Key Themes This Week
- •Last week's AI-led selloff is the backdrop. On Thursday, November 5, the Nasdaq Composite fell about 5.5% and the S&P 500 fell about 4.4%. Both had their worst day since April 2025. Selling followed Democratic midterm gains and worries about tougher rules on data centers. Stocks partly rebounded Friday, but the S&P 500 still lost about 2.7% for the week.
- •The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrives Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET. It lands after a strong jobs report (+165,000 jobs vs. about 59,000–65,000 expected). Markets currently price a roughly 75–80% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike in December. Ten Fed officials are also scheduled to speak, their first public remarks since the election.
- •The US–Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz remain central for energy markets. Brent crude settled near $98 and WTI near $91 on Friday. Both fell sharply on the week amid reports of mediation by Qatar, even as tanker attacks were reported. Treasury refunding auctions, Cisco and Applied Materials earnings, and a Wednesday bond-market holiday round out the calendar.
Market Snapshot
VIX (fear gauge)
25.64
-9.0% on Friday (after about +70% Thursday)
10Y Yield
4.86%
+0.02% on Friday
WTI Oil
$90.83
About -13%
Gold
$4,081
About +4.5% to +5% (-0.8% on Friday)
US Dollar
About 101.6
Firmer on Friday after the jobs data
Market Context
Current Sentiment
Markets enter the week after a volatile stretch. Thursday's rout hit chip and AI-infrastructure shares hardest. Nvidia fell about 9%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 12%. Technology bounced on Friday while the Dow slipped. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, jumped about 70% Thursday and eased Friday but stays elevated. Meanwhile, an eight-month US–Iran conflict continues to affect oil. Qatar has floated a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but no deal is confirmed. Interest rate expectations lean toward tightening, not cuts.
Key Levels
Friday, November 6 closes: S&P 500 7,376.86 (+0.31%; about -2.7% for the week); Nasdaq Composite 24,579.42 (+1.09%); Nasdaq-100 26,989.99 (+1.35%); Dow 51,285.73 (-0.46%); Russell 2000 2,754.11 (+0.89%).
Historical Note
Single-day drops of 4% or more in the S&P 500 are rare. Past ones have often been followed by high volatility, with large moves in both directions over the following days. Markets have also historically been sensitive to inflation reports when the Fed is weighing a change in rates. Learn more about managing risk and market swings.
Week at a Glance
monday
Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin), 3-year Treasury auction, earnings from KKR, Occidental, and Take-Two.
tuesday
October CPI at 8:30 AM ET, 10-year Treasury auction, Fed speakers (Waller, Logan, Schmid), and TransDigm earnings.
wednesday
Veterans Day: bond market closed, stocks open. Few scheduled events beyond a Bowman appearance.
thursday
Jobless claims, existing home sales, 30-year auction, Fed speakers, and Cisco and Applied Materials after the close.
friday
October PPI at 8:30 AM ET, plus Daly and Jefferson remarks.
Breaking Developments
AI and chip stock selloff after midterm electionspolicy
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Democrats won control of Congress in the November 3 midterms. On Thursday, tech and chip stocks sold off on concerns about possible data-center construction pauses and reduced energy and tax incentives. The Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory, down roughly 12% from its record high. Qualcomm's weak forecast added pressure.
Market Relevance
Historically, sharp one-day drops concentrated in one theme have been followed by rebounds and renewed declines alike. Policy uncertainty has typically widened the range of market outcomes. Rising rates and heavy borrowing needs have also been cited as pressures on AI-related companies.
SemiconductorsTechnologyData-center infrastructureUtilities and energy
Ongoing. Fed speakers, CPI, and Cisco and Applied Materials earnings may add information about AI-related demand and borrowing costs.
US–Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptiongeopolitical
Ongoing; latest developments November 3–7, 2026
The conflict began in late February. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly running well below normal capacity, and Iran reported three more tanker attacks Thursday. Qatar has proposed a plan that would reopen the strait in exchange for easing the US blockade and releasing some frozen assets. Reports of limited US strikes on an Iranian island were also published.
Market Relevance
Oil prices have historically reacted quickly to supply headlines in both directions. Brent fell more than 12% last week on diplomacy hopes. Higher energy prices have fed into inflation readings, which is why oil news is closely tied to Fed expectations.
EnergyAirlines and transportationDefenseConsumer discretionary
Ongoing and fluid. Talks have not produced a confirmed agreement, and headlines may change quickly.
Strong October jobs report raises rate-hike pricingfinancial
Friday, November 6, 2026
Payrolls rose by 165,000, well above forecasts of roughly 59,000 to 65,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, and wages rose 0.4% for the month. Market pricing for a December quarter-point Fed hike moved up to the high 70s percent, according to futures-based measures.
Market Relevance
Strong labor data has historically pushed yields and the dollar higher when the Fed is concerned about inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield closed near 4.86% on Friday, and the 2-year yield near 4.51%.
FinancialsReal estateTechnologySmall caps
Ongoing. Tuesday's CPI and Friday's PPI will add inflation information.
Bank of England raises ratesfinancial
Thursday, November 5, 2026
The Bank of England lifted its policy rate to 4% from 3.75%. It was the first increase since 2023, and officials said more may come.
Market Relevance
Rate moves at major central banks have historically influenced global bond yields and currency values, which can spill into US markets.
BanksBondsMultinational companies
Ongoing. BoE and other central bank speakers are scheduled this week.
Major Events This Week
October Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Tuesday, November 10 • 8:30 AM ETWhat to Know
CPI tracks price changes for things households buy. September's headline rate was 3.7% year over year, with core at 2.6%, and energy prices were a major driver. Forecasts call for the monthly headline gain to slow to about 0.3% from 0.6%, with core near 0.2%.
Historical Context
Markets have historically been sensitive to CPI surprises, especially when the Fed is debating rate changes. Yields and stock indexes have often moved within minutes of the release.
10-Year Treasury Note Auction ($42 billion)
Tuesday, November 10 • 1:00 PM ETWhat to Know
This is part of the Treasury's $125 billion quarterly refunding. Analysts watch demand through bid-to-cover ratios and the yield. Learn more about bonds and fixed income.
Historical Context
Weak auction demand has at times pushed yields higher, while strong demand has done the opposite. Auction results have sometimes added to market moves on CPI days.
Cisco and Applied Materials earnings
Thursday, November 12 • After the close (ET)What to Know
Cisco (networking) and Applied Materials (chip equipment) are both tied to AI and data-center spending, the theme behind last week's selloff.
Historical Context
Earnings from companies in a recently stressed theme have historically drawn wide attention, and reactions have varied widely.
October Producer Price Index (PPI)
Friday, November 13 • 8:30 AM ETWhat to Know
PPI measures prices companies receive at the wholesale level. September's headline reading was +1.3% for the month, with core at +0.7%. Forecasts point to about +0.4% and +0.3%.
Historical Context
PPI is often read alongside CPI for hints about inflation pressure further up the supply chain.
Fed speakers (ten officials scheduled)
Monday, November 9 to Friday, November 13 • Various times ETWhat to Know
Scheduled speakers include Goolsbee, Barkin, Bowman, Waller, Logan, Schmid, Paulson, Hammack, Barr, Daly, Williams and Jefferson. These are the first remarks since the election and the strong jobs data.
Historical Context
Fed commentary between meetings has historically moved rate expectations, especially when officials signal a shift in tone.
30-Year Treasury Bond Auction ($25 billion)
Thursday, November 12 • 1:00 PM ETWhat to Know
The final refunding auction of the week. The 30-year yield closed near 5.26% on Friday.
Historical Context
Long-bond auctions have historically drawn attention when yields sit near multi-year highs.
Earnings Calendar
Earnings season is winding down, with fewer large reports this week. Energy, private equity, gaming and AI-linked hardware stand out. Dates and times can change, so check each company's investor relations page.
Occidental PetroleumOXY
Monday, November 9 • After CloseA large US oil producer whose results are tied to crude prices, which fell sharply last week.
Production levels and realized oil pricesCapital spending and debt reduction
KKRKKR
Monday, November 9 • Before OpenA major private equity and asset manager, often watched for signals on deal activity and credit markets.
Asset inflows and fundraisingDeal and exit activity
Take-Two InteractiveTTWO
Monday, November 9 • After CloseA video game publisher. Investors typically focus on its release schedule.
Bookings guidanceTiming of major game launches
TransDigm GroupTDG
Tuesday, November 10 • Before OpenAn aerospace parts supplier whose results reflect air travel and defense demand.
Aftermarket sales trendsProfit margins and debt levels
Kraft HeinzKHC
Thursday, November 12 • Before OpenA packaged-food company whose results show how consumers respond to higher prices.
Volume vs. price trendsCommodity and input costs
Cisco SystemsCSCO
Thursday, November 12 • After CloseA networking leader and Dow component, closely linked to data-center demand. See how to read financial statements for background on earnings reports.
AI-related ordersRevenue and margin guidance
Applied MaterialsAMAT
Thursday, November 12 • After CloseA maker of chip-manufacturing equipment, which was among the sharply lower names Thursday.
Demand from chipmakersChina-related sales and export rules
Economic Calendar
Monday - November 9
8:40 AM ET
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks
Fed commentary can shape rate expectations.
10:00 AM ET
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks
First post-election remarks for many Fed officials.
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories (September)
Offers a view on business stockpiles and demand.
12:15 PM ET
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks
Another read on the Fed's inflation view.
1:00 PM ET
3-Year Treasury Note Auction ($58 billion)Prior: 4.932%
Demand at auctions helps show appetite for US debt.
Tuesday - November 10
6:00 AM ET
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (October)
Shows how small business owners view the economy.
8:30 AM ET
Consumer Price Index, October (monthly)Prior: +0.6% • Expected: +0.3%
The week's main inflation reading.
8:30 AM ET
Core CPI, October (monthly)Prior: +0.3% • Expected: +0.2%
Excludes food and energy, so it shows underlying price trends.
9:35 AM ET
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks
Commentary right after CPI.
1:00 PM ET
10-Year Treasury Note Auction ($42 billion)
Shows demand for longer-term government debt.
1:30 PM ET
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid speaks
Another Fed voice after the inflation data.
Wednesday - November 11
All day
Veterans Day: bond market closed; stock market open
Treasury trading is closed while stocks trade, so liquidity may differ.
Various
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks
No major economic data are scheduled.
Thursday - November 12
8:30 AM ET
Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Nov. 7)Prior: 189,000
A weekly gauge of layoffs. Recent four-week averages are at multi-decade lows.
9:00 AM ET
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks
Hammack favored a rate hike at the October meeting.
10:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales (October)Expected: 4.0 million
Housing is sensitive to mortgage rates.
10:00 AM ET
Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks
Adds to the week's Fed commentary.
1:00 PM ET
30-Year Treasury Bond Auction ($25 billion)
Long-term yields influence mortgage and borrowing costs.
1:10 PM ET
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks
Daly said last week that further tightening may be needed.
Friday - November 13
8:30 AM ET
Producer Price Index, October (monthly)Prior: +1.3% • Expected: +0.4%
A look at wholesale price pressures.
8:30 AM ET
Core PPI, October (monthly)Prior: +0.7% • Expected: +0.3%
Excludes food and energy.
12:00 PM ET
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks
A second appearance.
7:00 PM ET
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks
Closes out the week's Fed commentary.
Fed Watch
Current Rate
3.75%–4.00%
Next Meeting
December 8–9, 2026
After the Fed held rates on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, futures-based measures put the chance of a quarter-point hike in December at roughly 75–80%. Two officials had preferred a hike in October. This is a market snapshot, not a Fed forecast. Read more on the Fed and interest rates.
Upcoming Fed Speakers
Michelle Bowman (Governor)• Nov 9, 10, 11, 13- Not specified
Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed)• Nov 9 and Nov 12- Economic outlook
Thomas Barkin (Richmond Fed)• Nov 9- Not specified
Christopher Waller (Governor)• Nov 10- Not specified
Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed)• Nov 10- Not specified
Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed)• Nov 10- Not specified
Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed)• Nov 12- Student conversation, Ohio State
Michael Barr (Governor)• Nov 12- Not specified
Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed)• Nov 12 and Nov 13- Not specified
John Williams (New York Fed)• Nov 12–13- Panel discussion, UC Berkeley
Philip Jefferson (Vice Chair)• Nov 13- Not specified
Global Events
US–Iran talks and Strait of Hormuz shippingMiddle East
Ongoing all week
The strait is a key route for global oil. Developments affect energy prices and inflation expectations.
Bank of England and ECB speakers (Bailey, Cipollone, Schnabel)UK / Eurozone
Nov 9–13
The BoE just raised rates. Central bank tone abroad can influence global yields and the dollar.
UK and Eurozone Q3 GDPUK / Eurozone
Week of Nov 9
Growth data show how major trading partners are holding up.
China inflation and trade dataChina
Week of Nov 9
Trade figures can shed light on global demand and chip supply chains.
Bank of Japan Governor Asada speaksJapan
Nov 12
Japanese policy affects global bond markets and the yen.
Technical Levels
S&P 500
Current
7,377
Support
Round-number zones near 7,300 and 7,200, plus the Thursday lows
Resistance
Near 7,500 and the pre-selloff levels above it
Nasdaq
Current
24,579
Support
Thursday's low near 24,300 and the 24,000 area
Resistance
The 200-day moving average, which both the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100 fell below Thursday, and 25,000
Technical analysis is one of many approaches used by market participants
Sources
- • AP News – Business calendar for the week (2026-11-07)
- • Kiplinger – Economic Calendar, Nov. 9–13 (2026-11-07)
- • Yardeni Research – Economic Week Ahead (2026-11-07)
- • CNBC – Stock market and October jobs report coverage (2026-11-06)
- • Yahoo Finance – Stock Market Today (2026-11-06)
- • Trading Economics – Week Ahead (2026-11-06)
- • CappNotes – Closing Look (2026-11-06)
- • Schwab – Market volatility commentary (2026-11-05)
- • Reuters/Yahoo News – Qatar plan on Strait of Hormuz (2026-11-07)
- • US Treasury – Quarterly Refunding Statement (2026-11-04)
- • FXStreet – Forecasting the upcoming week (2026-11-06)
Disclaimer: This week ahead preview is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scheduled events may be subject to change. Market reactions to events are unpredictable and past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.