Market Analysis
Why Did Stocks Fall Nov 6? AI Selloff, Jobs
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Stock Market Today, Nov 2: AI Spending Fears
StockCram Editorial3 min readStocks start the week shaky after Friday's AI-driven tech selloff, with oil falling on Iran talks and the US midterm elections set for Tuesday.
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- •US stocks fell sharply on Friday, October 30, as worries about AI spending hit tech: the S&P 500 lost 1.82% to 7,580.07 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86%, with Intel down 28.6% after a weak outlook.
- •The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, September inflation rose to 3.6%, and traders see about a 75% chance of a December rate hike.
- •Brent crude fell about 3% to near $110 a barrel on Monday, November 2, as Iran-Qatar talks raised hopes for a deal, and US stock futures rose about 0.4%.
- •The week brings the midterm elections on November 3, Apple earnings after the close on November 2, and the October jobs report on November 6, with about 55,000 jobs expected.
Deep DiveToday's Market Movers
AI spending fears hit tech stocks: Nasdaq falls 2.9% and Intel plunges 28.6%
What Happened
US stocks fell sharply on Friday, October 30, with the S&P 500 down 1.82% to 7,580.07, its worst day since June, as weak earnings from Intel and Amazon fed worries about AI spending. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.86% to 25,437.00. Intel fell 28.6% on a soft fourth-quarter outlook, Reddit dropped about 29%, and Amazon slipped 1.4% as heavy investment spending cut into its free cash flow.
Why It Matters
Investors are asking whether huge AI spending will pay off, a debate we cover in Are We in Another AI Bubble? For the month, the Nasdaq lost 5.2% and the S&P 500 lost 1.2%, while the Dow gained 1.5%. New to these terms? See our stock market glossary and what a stock is.
Market Impact
Equities
S&P 500 -1.82% to 7,580.07; Nasdaq Composite -2.86% to 25,437.00; Dow -1.09% to 51,770.31. US futures are up about 0.4% Monday.
Rates
10-year Treasury yield slipped to about 4.94% as investors moved toward safer assets.
FX
No clear move reported; currency markets were quiet.
Commodities
Little direct effect; oil moved on Iran news instead.
Fed holds rates at 3.75%-4.00% as inflation hits 3.6% and traders price a December hike
What Happened
The Federal Reserve left its key interest rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a split vote. Days later, the PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose to 3.6% over the past year in September from 3.4% in August, mostly because of energy costs. Third-quarter US economic growth came in at a 3.4% annual pace, and traders see about a 75% chance of a rate hike in December.
Why It Matters
Strong growth plus high inflation is why the Fed is leaning toward higher rates. Higher rates raise borrowing costs for homes, cars and companies. For background, read why stocks can rise when interest rates are high.
Market Impact
Equities
Higher-rate worries add pressure to growth and tech shares.
Rates
10-year yield fell 6 basis points on the week to 4.94%, versus a 5.31% high on October 5. The 2-year yield dropped about 7 basis points on Friday to roughly 4.59%.
FX
No major move reported.
Commodities
Energy costs are a main driver of the inflation rise.
Oil falls about 3% as Iran-Qatar talks raise hopes for a deal; Brent near $110
What Happened
Brent crude fell about 3% to roughly $110 a barrel on Monday, and US benchmark WTI dropped to about $100.90, as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran. President Trump signaled he prefers diplomacy before considering more strikes after Tuesday's election.
Why It Matters
Oil above $100 feeds inflation, so any sign of peace matters for prices and for the Fed. The drop could reverse if talks fail. See why oil falls and stocks rise when war fears ease.
Market Impact
Equities
US stock futures rose about 0.4% as the oil drop helped sentiment.
Rates
Lower oil could ease inflation worries slightly over time.
FX
No major move reported.
Commodities
Brent crude -3% to about $110 a barrel; WTI -3% to about $100.90.
Midterm elections, Apple earnings and the jobs report make this a heavy week
What Happened
US midterm elections take place Tuesday, November 3, and Apple reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the close on Monday, with analysts expecting earnings of about $1.98 a share. The October jobs report arrives Friday, November 6, with economists expecting about 55,000 new jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%. September's report showed only 29,000 jobs.
Why It Matters
Apple's results will add to the debate over tech spending, and the jobs data will shape Fed rate expectations. For more on Apple's stock history, see Apple stock after 8 major launches.
Market Impact
Equities
Apple reports after Monday's close. 138 S&P 500 companies report this week.
Rates
The 10-year yield sits at 4.94%, just under 5%, ahead of the jobs report.
FX
Dollar moves are likely to follow Friday's jobs data and the Fed outlook.
Commodities
Oil traders are watching for post-election moves on Iran.
Historical Perspective
Similar Event
On January 27, 2025, a surprise low-cost Chinese AI model (DeepSeek) triggered a sharp tech selloff over doubts about AI spending, with the Nasdaq falling about 3% in one day.
What Happened Then
Chip and AI stocks fell hard at first, then recovered much of the loss over the following weeks, though valuations stayed volatile. For a longer view of tech selloffs, see the Dot-Com Bubble recovery timeline.
What to Watch Next
- →November 2, 10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI for October (prior: 54.5; forecast: 54.7)
- →November 3, 10:00 AM ET: JOLTS job openings for September (prior: 7.08 million; forecast: 7.11 million)
- →November 6, 8:30 AM ET: October jobs report (prior: 29,000 jobs added; unemployment 4.2%; forecast: about 55,000 jobs)
Analysis Confidence
Conviction Level:★★★★★
Key Uncertainties
Monday's US session has not closed, so the latest full session is Friday, October 30. Sources differ slightly on index drops (for example, Nasdaq-100 versus Nasdaq Composite). Oil quotes vary by outlet and shift with Iran headlines. Election results could change the market mood.
Sources
- • Reuters (Wall Street close) (2026-10-30)
- • Yahoo Finance (Stock market today) (2026-10-30)
- • Nasdaq (Chartstopper) (2026-10-30)
- • CNBC (week ahead outlook) (2026-10-30)
- • MortgageDaily (2026-11-01)
- • Saxo Bank (Market Quick Take) (2026-11-02)
- • Associated Press (global markets) (2026-11-02)
- • The National (oil markets) (2026-11-02)
- • CMC Markets (week ahead) (2026-11-02)