Market Analysis
Markets This Week: Tech Selloff, Midterms, Jobs
Read Article
Market Analysis
AI-powered insights into global financial markets
Stock Market Today, Oct 29: Fed Holds Rates
StockCram Editorial3 min readStocks rose for a third day as the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with a December hike now likely. Alphabet fell about 10% after hours on earnings.
Educational purposes only. This content does not constitute investment advice. Read our disclaimer
StockCram is not a broker-dealer, investment adviser, or financial institution. All content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.Executive Summary
- •US stocks rose for a third straight day on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.28% to 7,743.98, as the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% and strong earnings offset worries about inflation.
- •Traders see an 85% to 87% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike on Dec. 9, up from 78.3% a day earlier.
- •The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.03% on Wednesday, while Brent crude stayed near $114 a barrel on Iran war news.
- •Alphabet fell about 10% after hours to $292.38 after earnings of $2.12 per share missed the $3.02 forecast, while Microsoft rose more than 3% on 19% sales growth.
Deep DiveToday's Market Movers
Fed holds rates at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10-2 vote, and a December hike looks likely
What Happened
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, after raising it a quarter point in September. The vote was 10-2. The Fed upgraded its view of the economy and said inflation "remains elevated." Traders now see an 85% to 87% chance of a quarter-point hike on Dec. 9, up from 78.3% a day earlier, based on CME's FedWatch tool.
Why It Matters
Interest rates set the cost of loans and the price of stocks and bonds. The Fed paused but did not rule out another hike, so borrowing costs may stay high. For background, see our explainer on why the Fed might raise rates and our stock market glossary.
Market Impact
Equities
S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,743.98, the Dow rose 0.19% to 52,475.1 and the Nasdaq rose 0.27% to 26,549.85.
Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 3 basis points to roughly 5.03%, while the 2-year yield fell about 3 basis points to 4.70%.
FX
Dollar softened after the Fed chair's press conference; the euro rose 0.32% to $1.1160 and the dollar slipped 0.04% to 157.87 yen.
Commodities
Spot gold traded near $4,040 an ounce earlier in the day, close to a three-month low.
Alphabet falls about 10% after hours on an earnings miss, while Microsoft gains more than 3%
What Happened
Alphabet reported third-quarter revenue of $127.58 billion, just under the $128.2 billion forecast, and earnings per share of $2.12 against the $3.02 forecast. Microsoft reported revenue up 19% to $92.3 billion, and both firms showed strong cloud and AI growth.
Why It Matters
Big tech firms make up a large share of the S&P 500, so their results can move the whole index. Futures trading will show how much these moves spill into Thursday's session. Learn how after-hours trading works and why those prices can change at the open.
Market Impact
Equities
Alphabet fell about 10% to $292.38 in after-hours trading, after closing up 1.34% (GOOGL) in the regular session. Microsoft rose more than 3% after hours.
Rates
No direct effect on yields.
FX
No clear currency move tied to the earnings.
Commodities
No direct effect.
Brent crude holds near $114 as Iran-war talks flicker
What Happened
Brent crude slipped to about $114 a barrel on Thursday after reports that Vice President Vance had sent a letter to Iran to try to revive peace talks. A day earlier, a report of a US strike plan had pushed prices above $115, and Brent is up roughly 77% from a year ago.
Why It Matters
Oil feeds into gasoline and shipping costs, which keep inflation high. That is a main reason the Fed is leaning toward more rate hikes. See how oil prices behave during war.
Market Impact
Equities
Energy was among the best S&P 500 sectors on Wednesday, up 0.41%.
Rates
Oil-driven inflation worries are keeping bond yields near 5%.
FX
Higher oil prices have weighed on the euro, which was near 17-month lows earlier in the week.
Commodities
Brent eased about 0.9% to about $114.28 a barrel on Thursday morning, after reaching $115.32 on Wednesday. WTI was near $101.74.
Ten-year Treasury yield sits near 5% as 2-year yield falls
What Happened
The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark for mortgages and car loans, rose about 3 basis points to 5.026% on Wednesday. The 2-year yield, which tracks Fed expectations more closely, fell more than 3 basis points to 4.704%. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Why It Matters
Higher yields make bonds more attractive and can weigh on rate-sensitive stocks like utilities and real estate. See why stocks can rise even when interest rates are high, and our guide to stocks for how rates affect prices.
Market Impact
Equities
Utilities fell 0.88% and real estate fell 0.65%, the two weakest S&P 500 sectors.
Rates
The 10-year yield was about 5.03% on Wednesday and eased to about 5.00% Thursday. The 30-year yield rose about 4 basis points to 5.354%.
FX
The dollar weakened slightly after the Fed meeting.
Commodities
Gold stayed near $4,000 to $4,050 an ounce.
Earnings season stays strong: 84% of S&P 500 reporters beat forecasts
What Happened
Of the 200 S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results, 84% beat analyst estimates, according to LSEG data. Analysts now expect total S&P 500 earnings to grow 31.8% from a year ago, up from 30.6% on Oct. 1.
Why It Matters
Strong profits help explain why stocks have held up near records despite 5% bond yields. New to the topic? Read what earnings season means.
Market Impact
Equities
Technology rose 0.48% on Wednesday, the best S&P 500 sector. Eight of 11 sectors finished higher.
Rates
No direct effect.
FX
No direct effect.
Commodities
No direct effect.
Historical Perspective
Similar Event
In 2022 the Fed paused or slowed its rate path while inflation was still high, and in September 2026 it raised rates again after a pause.
What Happened Then
Stocks have often swung in the days after such pauses, as investors reassessed how long rates would stay high. Reactions have depended on inflation data and earnings. For longer-run perspective, see how the market recovered after Black Monday in 1987.
What to Watch Next
- →October 29, 8:30 a.m. ET: Third-quarter GDP advance estimate and September PCE inflation report (prior: Q2 GDP growth of 2.2%; forecasts call for about 2.8% to 3.2% growth and core PCE up 0.3% on the month)
- →October 29, 8:30 a.m. ET: Weekly initial jobless claims (prior: 194,000; forecast: about 198,000)
- →October 30: Bank of Japan policy decision (prior: not confirmed in sources)
- →December 9: Federal Reserve policy decision (prior: 3.75%–4.00%)
Analysis Confidence
Conviction Level:★★★★★
Key Uncertainties
Sources differ slightly on closing index levels. The Reuters preliminary figures put the S&P 500 at 7,748.03, while the Xinhua figures put it at 7,743.98. The Thursday GDP and PCE results were not available, and the after-hours moves in Alphabet and Microsoft may change at the open. The Iran peace talks are unclear.
Sources
- • Bernama-Xinhua (2026-10-29)
- • Reuters (via The Standard HK and Business Today Malaysia) (2026-10-28)
- • CNBC (2026-10-28)
- • Bloomberg (2026-10-28)
- • Investing.com (2026-10-28)
- • The Motley Fool (2026-10-28)
- • The National (2026-10-29)
- • Rigzone (Bloomberg wire) (2026-10-28)
- • FXStreet (2026-10-28)