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Jobs Report and Hormuz: Markets This Week
StockCram Editorial13 min readA jobs report, the Iran oil situation, and tail-end earnings collide this week—and they pull markets in different directions.
Week of Monday, September 28, 2026 - Friday, October 2, 2026
Key Themes This Week
- •Oil prices declined on Friday amid optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, as Iran has asked the U.S. to return to the memorandum of understanding from June, providing temporary relief from an energy shock that has pushed crude prices higher throughout September
- •The September employment report is scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, with economists watching for signs of how the labor market is weathering higher energy costs and elevated interest rates
- •The August PCE inflation report arrives Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, alongside the final Q2 GDP estimate and manufacturing data that will help shape expectations for the next FOMC meeting in late October
Market Snapshot
VIX (fear gauge)
14.87
-5.11%
10Y Yield
5.18%%
+0.43%
WTI Oil
$$92.41
-2.33%
Gold
$$4,321
+0.54%
US Dollar
100.76
-0.26%
Market Context
Current Sentiment
U.S. equities rose on Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile week of trading, with a surge in Treasury yields rippling through financial markets; the S&P 500 climbed 0.51% to close at 7,743.41. The 2026 Iran war fuel crisis is a worldwide fuel crisis caused by the war between Iran and the U.S.-Israel coalition; the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20% of the world's oil trade passes, led to a large disruption in global oil supplies. Oil prices rose to nearly a six-week high amid strikes between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz; on Monday, Brent oil futures rose to hover around $97 a barrel—up 9 percent over the last five days, though prices have since retreated on hopes for diplomatic progress.
Key Levels
The S&P 500 closed at 7,743.41, the Nasdaq Composite at 27,068.72, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 51,828.62 heading into the final week of September. The VIX closed at 14.87, down 5.11%, near its 2026 lows. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.18%, reflecting persistent inflation concerns.
Historical Note
Brent crude oil prices surged 10–13% to around $80–82 per barrel by March 2, 2026, and dropped back to near $70 by July; the conflict has caused the restriction of nearly all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to what the International Energy Agency has characterised as the 'largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market'. The employment report has historically been a key driver of market volatility, particularly when labor data conflicts with inflation trends.
Week at a Glance
monday
Light economic calendar with only the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey scheduled. Markets may focus on geopolitical developments and position ahead of a data-heavy week.
tuesday
Consumer Confidence and Case-Shiller Home Prices provide insight into the consumer and housing sectors. The Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision (Tuesday evening U.S. time) is expected to deliver a 25bp hike to 4.60%, which could influence global risk sentiment.
wednesday
The busiest day of the week features the PCE inflation report—the Fed's preferred gauge—alongside the final Q2 GDP estimate, ADP employment data, and the Chicago PMI. These releases arrive simultaneously at 8:30 AM ET and could drive significant market volatility.
thursday
ISM Manufacturing PMI headlines the economic calendar at 10:00 AM ET, providing a comprehensive look at factory activity. Weekly jobless claims data arrives at 8:30 AM. Nike reports fiscal Q1 2027 results after the close, the most notable earnings release of the week.
friday
The September employment report at 8:30 AM ET is the marquee event, with economists expecting 90,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%. This report will be crucial for shaping Federal Reserve expectations heading into the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.
Breaking Developments
Strait of Hormuz Diplomatic Developmentsgeopolitical
September 25-26, 2026
Oil prices slid amid optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, as Iran has asked the U.S. to return to the memorandum of understanding from June that failed to end the Middle East conflict. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 2.33% to settle at $92.41 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude futures declined 2.14% to $104.32 a barrel. This follows months of disruption to global oil flows through the critical waterway.
Market Relevance
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20% of the world's oil trade passes, led to a large disruption in global oil supplies; the disruption led to global oil prices rising and caused fuel shortages in countries which imported most of their fuel from the Persian Gulf region. Historically, energy price shocks have influenced both inflation data and central bank policy decisions, while also affecting consumer spending patterns across sectors from transportation to retail.
EnergyTransportationConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrials
Yes—the situation remains fluid, with diplomatic talks ongoing and no permanent resolution yet reached. Further developments could move energy markets significantly during the week.
Major Events This Week
Personal Income and Outlays (PCE Inflation)
Wednesday, September 30 • 8:30 AM ETWhat to Know
The PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy, also known as the core PCE price index, is released as part of the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report; the core PCE price index is closely watched by the Federal Reserve as it conducts monetary policy. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, making it a key input for interest rate expectations.
Historical Context
July 2026 PCE inflation rose 0.2% monthly and 3.7% yearly; core PCE rose 0.2% monthly and 3.3% yearly. Markets have historically reacted to surprises in core PCE data, particularly when readings diverge from CPI or when they influence the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy.
GDP Third Estimate (Q2 2026)
Wednesday, September 30 • 8:30 AM ETWhat to Know
BEA also schedules the Q2 GDP third estimate and annual updates at 8:30 AM on the same day as the PCE report. This final revision provides the most complete picture of second-quarter economic growth, incorporating additional data that wasn't available for earlier estimates.
Historical Context
Third estimates typically show smaller revisions than the gap between advance and second estimates, but can still move markets when they reveal meaningful changes to the composition of growth—particularly in areas like consumer spending, business investment, or inventory changes.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Thursday, October 1 • 10:00 AM ETWhat to Know
The Manufacturing PMI is released on the first business day of the month at 10:00 a.m. EST. The Manufacturing PMI registered 54.6 percent in August, 1 percentage point below the July figure of 55.6 percent; the overall economy continued in expansion for the 22nd month in a row. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector.
Historical Context
The ISM Manufacturing index has historically been a reliable leading indicator for the broader economy. Markets pay particular attention to the new orders and prices paid components, as they can signal future growth trends and inflation pressures. The index has shown consistent expansion since early 2025.
Employment Situation (September Jobs Report)
Friday, October 2 • 8:30 AM ETWhat to Know
The Employment Situation for September 2026 is scheduled to be published on Friday, October 2, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Economists estimate the jobs report will show nonfarm payrolls rose about 90,000 after climbing in the prior month by the most since March; the unemployment rate is seen remaining at a one-year low of 4.1%. This monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks employment, unemployment, and wage growth.
Historical Context
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August 2026, well above the prior 12-month average of 31,000; unemployment held at 4.1%, labor-force participation edged up to 61.6%, and June-July payrolls were revised up by a combined 55,000. The jobs report has historically been one of the most market-moving data releases, particularly when it influences Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Earnings Calendar
The earnings calendar is light this week as Q3 earnings season has not yet begun in earnest. The most notable report comes from Nike on Thursday, which has faced challenges throughout 2026.
NikeNKE
Thursday, October 1 • After CloseNike is the only Dow Jones stock on the earnings calendar this week; S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that NKE would be removed from the S&P 100, effective September 21. Nike plans to release its first quarter fiscal 2027 financial results on Thursday, October 1, 2026, at approximately 1:15 p.m. PT, following the close of regular stock market trading hours. The athletic apparel giant has faced significant headwinds in 2026, including the loss of key endorsements and weakening demand.
Wall Street expects a 10.2% year-over-year slide for EPS to 44 cents, on a 3.3% decline for revenue—analysts will be watching whether the company can stabilize its businessGreater China performance has been a pain point; Q4 revenue declined 4% currency-neutral; Greater China plunged 17% in the prior quarterManagement forecasts low-to-mid single-digit revenue decline over next three quarters, citing softer consumer demand and challenging macro environment—guidance will be closely scrutinized
AccentureACN
Thursday, October 1 • Before OpenThe consulting and technology services firm reports fiscal Q4 results. As a bellwether for corporate IT spending, Accenture's results and guidance can provide insight into business investment trends.
Revenue growth and margin trends in the company's key consulting and technology segmentsForward guidance on corporate spending for digital transformation and cloud services
McCormickMKC
Thursday, October 1 • Before OpenThe spice and seasonings company reports Q3 results. As a consumer staples name, McCormick's performance can shed light on consumer spending patterns and pricing power in the food industry.
Pricing trends and volume performance as consumers navigate elevated food costsInput cost pressures and the company's ability to pass through inflation
Economic Calendar
Monday - September 28
10:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity IndexPrior: August reading
Regional manufacturing survey that can provide early signals about the national ISM Manufacturing report due Thursday
Tuesday - September 29
9:00 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July)Prior: June data
Tracks home price changes in major metropolitan areas; watched for signals about housing market strength amid elevated mortgage rates
10:00 AM ET
Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)Prior: August reading
Measures consumer attitudes about current economic conditions and future expectations; particularly important given recent energy price volatility
2:30 PM ET (7:30 AM Sydney)
Reserve Bank of Australia Rate DecisionPrior: 4.35% • Expected: 4.60% (25bp hike expected)
NAB, CBA and Westpac all now expect a rate hike at the 29 September meeting, forecasting a 25bp rise to 4.60%; ANZ also expects a September hike, but is forecasting a second hike in November. While this is an international event, it can influence global risk sentiment and currency markets.
Wednesday - September 30
8:15 AM ET
ADP National Employment ReportPrior: August data
Private-sector employment estimate that can provide a preview of Friday's official jobs report, though correlations vary
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays (PCE Inflation)Prior: July: +0.2% monthly headline, +0.2% core
The Fed's preferred inflation measure; core PCE is watched most closely for underlying price trends
8:30 AM ET
GDP (Q2 2026, Third Estimate)Prior: Second estimate
Final revision to second-quarter growth; includes annual benchmark revisions to the National Economic Accounts
9:45 AM ET
Chicago PMIPrior: August reading
Regional manufacturing survey for the Chicago area; another preview of national manufacturing conditions
Thursday - October 1
8:30 AM ET
Initial Jobless ClaimsPrior: Prior week
Weekly measure of new unemployment insurance filings; watched for signs of labor market deterioration
8:30 AM ET
Continuing ClaimsPrior: Prior week
Tracks ongoing unemployment claims; can signal whether job losers are finding new positions quickly
9:45 AM ET
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)Prior: Preliminary September reading
Final reading of the private-sector manufacturing survey; typically shows minor revisions from preliminary data
10:00 AM ET
ISM Manufacturing PMIPrior: 54.6 in August
Closely watched gauge of factory activity; readings above 50 indicate expansion
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending (August)Prior: July data
Tracks spending on residential and nonresidential construction; can signal strength in the housing and commercial real estate sectors
Friday - October 2
8:30 AM ET
Employment Situation (September Jobs Report)Prior: 162,000 jobs added in August; 4.1% unemployment • Expected: 90,000 jobs; 4.1% unemployment
The marquee economic release of the week; provides comprehensive data on job growth, unemployment, labor force participation, and wage growth
Fed Watch
Current Rate
3.75% - 4.00%
Next Meeting
October 27-28, 2026
At its September 15–16, 2026 meeting, the FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the range by 25 basis points; the September 16 policy statement said inflation remained elevated and that the increase would support a timelier return to its 2% goal. Markets currently see the October meeting as a close call between a hold and another hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This week's inflation and employment data will be critical inputs for those expectations.
Upcoming Fed Speakers
Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President)• Week of September 28- Economic outlook remarks expected
Global Events
Reserve Bank of Australia Rate DecisionAustralia
Tuesday, September 29 (2:30 PM ET / Wednesday 7:30 AM Sydney)
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in August and will make its next interest rate decision on 29 September 2026; NAB, CBA and Westpac all now expect a rate hike at the 29 September meeting, forecasting a 25bp rise to 4.60%. Central bank policy decisions in major economies can influence global risk sentiment and currency markets, which in turn affect U.S. multinationals and trade-sensitive sectors.
Chinese Manufacturing PMIChina
Wednesday, September 30 (overnight U.S. time)
China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data provide insight into the world's second-largest economy. Weakness in Chinese manufacturing can signal softer global demand and affect commodity prices, while also influencing sentiment toward companies with significant China exposure.
Eurozone Flash CPIEuropean Union
Wednesday, September 30
Preliminary inflation estimates from major European economies feed into the broader eurozone inflation picture. European Central Bank policy is influenced by these readings, and divergences between U.S. and European inflation trends can affect currency markets and global capital flows.
Technical Levels
S&P 500
Current
7,743
Support
7,700 (round number), 7,636 (50-day moving average)
Resistance
7,817 (52-week high), 7,800 (psychological level)
Nasdaq
Current
27,069
Support
26,800, 26,500 (prior consolidation zone)
Resistance
27,200, 27,500 (psychological levels)
As of market close on September 25, 2026, the S&P 500 was trading at 7742.09, above its 50-day moving average of 7636.06 and well above its 200-day moving average of 7205.20. Technical analysis is one of many approaches used by market participants to assess potential support and resistance zones.
Sources
- • CNBC (2026-09-27)
- • Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026-09-27)
- • Bureau of Economic Analysis (2026-09-27)
- • Federal Reserve (2026-09-27)
- • Institute for Supply Management (2026-09-27)
- • Reserve Bank of Australia (2026-09-27)
- • Kiplinger (2026-09-27)
- • Bloomberg (2026-09-27)
- • Al Jazeera (2026-09-27)
- • CNN (2026-09-07)
Disclaimer: This week ahead preview is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scheduled events may be subject to change. Market reactions to events are unpredictable and past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.